Market gives up some gains into the weekend. Following the historic run over the past three days, US equities are lower in early trading Friday. The United States now has more confirmed cases of COVID-19 than China, though far fewer deaths. The stimulus package is expected to pass through the House of Representatives today before heading to the White House for President Trump’s signature, though if any lawmaker objects to the special “voice vote,” a delay remains a possibility.
Will investors take weaker economic news in stride? Earlier this week, the IHS Markit Flash U.S. PMI Composite™ for March 2020 reached an all-time series low, with manufacturing and services being hindered by COVID-19 and social distancing. In our Road to Recovery Playbook, we have a factor that emphasizes whether or not there is visibility into the probability and severity of a US recession. We believe this particular economic release certainly points toward recession, but importantly, we believe that was already the expectation of most investors. In fact, on the day of this economic release, the S&P 500 Index rallied nearly 10% as investors increasingly believed Congress would pass a massive fiscal stimulus package. For more details read today’s LPL Research blog.
A bull market? The Dow gained more than 20% from the recent lows in a record three days. Many in the media have dubbed this a new bull market. At this time, the market is in the process of forming a bottom, but we’d be very careful to call this a new bull market as large bounces tend to happen, even in bear markets.
Could yields actually rise after the Fed’s bazooka? With the major stock market indexes all entering a bear market this month, it’s no surprise that stocks have stolen most of the spotlight. However, actions taken by the Federal Reserve (Fed) to support what may be considered the safest part of the bond market, US Treasuries, may actually have more lasting implications for investors’ portfolios. We look at where Treasury yields might be headed following unprecedented moves by the Fed over the past week in today’s Blog.
The news keeps getting better for Social Security recipients. It’s now projected that benefits will increase 6.1% in 2022, up from the 4.7% forecast just two months ago. That would be the most significant increase since 1983.1,2
Inheriting wealth can be a burden and a blessing. Even if you have an inclination that a family member may remember you in their last will and testament, there are many facets to the process of inheritance that you may not have considered. Here are some things you may want to keep in mind if … Continue reading “Coping with an Inheritance”
It’s long been an aspirational target for entrepreneurs. It literally goes beyond “blue sky,” in terms of location, to a place no business has gone before: Outer Space! The name of the game is commercial space travel.
With all the attention given to inflation, stock prices, and job reports, it’s been easy to overlook the remarkable move in the bond market during the past few months as bond yields have fallen. The yield on the 10-year treasury closed at 1.37% on Friday, July 9, down from its 2021 high of 1.74% in … Continue reading “The Quiet Fall in Bond Yields”
On July 6, oil prices reached a six-year high of $76.98 a barrel. This benchmark came as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies failed to reach an agreement regarding an increase in production.1 This rise in cost follows a year in which OPEC and allies cut production amidst the COVID-19 pandemic. … Continue reading “Oil Prices Hit Six-Year High”
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