Byron Wien recently passed away. He was a true Wall Street icon. I had the good fortune of meeting Mr. Wien once when I was seated behind him at an investment conference during the depths of the Great Financial Crisis (GFC). Mr. Wien was probably best known for his annual top ten list of surprises for the year ahead. He defined a surprise on his list as something that the average investor would only assign about a one-in-three chance of occurring, but that he thought was closer to 50/50. I always thought this was a useful exercise. Markets have a way of habitually surprising us and proving the conventional thinking wrong, so having an idea of where the potential forks in the road may come just makes us better prepared and informed as investors.
Below is my compilation of five potential surprises for markets in 2024. Mr. Wien would do 10, but I reduced it to five for the sake of brevity. Please remember these are not all meant to be seen as forecasts or base-case views, but rather a thought exercise around potential risks and opportunities that the markets might be overly discounting in 2024.
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