Tag: Current Events

Market Update: Three Takeaways from the Fed Decision

Mar 27, 2023

Overview

• As we expected, the Federal Reserve (Fed) raised the fed funds rate by 0.25%, pushing the upper bound to 5.00%.
• Financial conditions were stable enough for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to release updated projections, unlike the Fed’s decision back in March 2020 to delay updated projections due to financial instability.
• Yesterday, the Committee was unanimous in their decision, creating an aura of calm for markets.
• Financial stability is clearly a vital factor in future decisions, but as of now, the Fed will likely hike at least one more time at the May meeting.
• Tighter credit conditions translate into equivalent rate hikes. Therefore, the Fed can rightly soften their language that additional policy firming may (or may not) be appropriate.

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Tags: Current Events

Market Update – Three Implications of the Latest Inflation Release

Mar 15, 2023

• The monthly consumer inflation rate slowed slightly to 0.4% in February from 0.5% the previous month, enough to push the annual rate of inflation down to the lowest since mid-2021.
• Housing costs accounted for over 70% of the increase in February and were the largest contributor to the monthly growth rate. This component will not likely be a significant driver of inflation by year end as more multi-family units come to market.
• Headline annual inflation rose 6%, the smallest increase since September 2021 and should reassure investors that inflation will cool further in the coming months.
• Food inflation rose 0.3% in February, the smallest increase since April 2021. Food prices are convincingly on a downward trend for the past seven months.
• Bottom Line: Even amid current banking scares, the Federal Reserve (Fed) will still prioritize price stability over growth and likely hike rates by 0.25% at the upcoming meeting. Shelter costs are poised to ease as more multi-family units come online throughout the year—as the supply of housing units increase, prices will slow and potentially decline. Investors should expect inflation to improve in the latter half of this year and will likely be interested in taking on more market exposure in portfolios.

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Tags: Current Events

Market Update – Bank Failures Raise Market Distress

Mar 13, 2023

Stock and bond market activity was materially shaken last week as Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), the California bank subsidiary of SVB Financial Group (SIVB), fell into FDIC receivership. SVB is the first FDIC-insured institution to fail since 2020 and the largest by assets since Washington Mutual failed in 2008. The news has caused market participants to speculate if another shoe is to drop. (more…)

Tags: Current Events

Market Update: Waiting for New Highs

Mar 3, 2023

Financial markets have experienced quite a bit of change this year in just two short months. We started the year hopeful that stocks would benefit from a better economic and monetary policy environment by the spring, but recent developments suggest that may be further out than we initially thought. We remain confident that a new bull market will come—it just may require a bit more of our patience before we get there. (more…)

Tags: Current Events

Bonds Are Back… But it May be Bumpy And That is Normal

Mar 1, 2023

Bond investors experienced the worst year ever for core bonds last year (as per the Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index), -so the prospects of another year like 2022 could be hard to fathom. The good news is we don’t think we’ll see another year like 2022 anytime soon, but despite the higher starting yield levels, we could see periods of negative returns. In fact, after a strong January for core bonds, unless yields fall dramatically today, February returns will be negative. But that is normal. Since inception of the index in 1975, over a third of the monthly returns have been negative and close to 25% of quarterly returns have been negative. Bonds trade daily and interest rates change throughout the day as well, so that means the market value of a bond will change daily as well. (more…)

Tags: Certified Financial Planner Charlotte NC, Current Events, Investment Planning

Bad Money Habits to Break

Feb 27, 2023

Do bad money habits constrain your financial progress? Many people fall into the same financial behavior patterns, year after year. If you sometimes succumb to these financial tendencies, now is as good a time as any to alter your behavior. (more…)

Tags: Certified Financial Planner Charlotte NC, charlotte NC, Current Events, Personal Finance

Market Update: Why a “No Landing” Makes No Sense

Feb 22, 2023

What is a Soft Landing?

A soft landing is when economic growth slows but remains positive as the economy sets up for a long-term sustainable growth path. In contrast, a hard landing means the country falls into recession to break the overheated economic machine. One assumption behind the analogy is an overheated economy is not on a sustainable growth path so policy makers ought to tighten financial conditions to improve the chances the economy can maintain a stable growth rate. (more…)

Tags: Current Events

Market Update: An Uneven Path to Two Percent

Feb 15, 2023

The Uneven Path

For most categories, inflation is decidedly past peak. But as we see from today’s report, the pathway back down to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) target of 2%, will be choppy. In January, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.5% from a month ago, driven up by shelter costs. Higher shelter costs contributed roughly half of the monthly gain in prices during the month. Other contributors to the upward rise in prices were groceries, restaurants, and energy costs. (more…)

Tags: Current Events

Market Update: What You Should Know About the Latest Fed Action

Feb 3, 2023

What a Difference a Year Makes

A year ago today, the federal funds rate was close to zero, consumer price inflation reached 7.9%, and yet the 10-year Treasury yield was 1.79%. What a difference a year makes. Inflation clearly had more upside and from this vantage point, the Federal Reserve (Fed) was late in pursuing price stability. (more…)

Tags: Current Events, financial advisor charlotte nc, Investing, Investment Planning

Market Update – Can Gold Continue to Shine?

Jan 25, 2023

Gold has climbed to a nine-month high after breaking out from a bottom formation last fall. The yellow metal is now up nearly 20% off the September lows, including over a 5% year-to-date gain as of Monday, January 23. The recovery in gold has primarily been fueled by a weakening dollar and fading market expectations for a further prolonged Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike cycle due to receding inflation pressures in the U.S. Rising demand from foreign central banks, including the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), has provided an additional tailwind for gold. (more…)

Tags: Current Events, Investing, Investment Planning, Investment Portfolio