Early in the second Trump administration, tariff threats have revived market volatility. Recent Treasury yield curve movements reflect this uncertainty, with markets reacting to both threatened and postponed tariffs against key trading partners. Short-term yields rose as markets pushed back expectations for Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts, while long-term yields declined on economic slowdown concerns and potential trade tensions. These yield curve dynamics mirror patterns seen during the first Trump presidency (more…)
The new month brings two major market-moving stories to digest. First is the advances in artificial intelligence (AI) by Chinese startup DeepSeek. It has caused some investors to question America’s lead in the AI race and American Exceptionalism more broadly. To answer that question, it’s important to look at this idea holistically. U.S. advantages in research and development spending, capital markets depth, the dollar’s privilege as the global reserve currency, and more suggest U.S. exceptionalism will remain intact. (more…)
The buzz around Chinese artificial intelligence (AI) startup DeepSeek began to stir over the weekend, prompting a “sell now ask questions later” attitude across tech shares on Monday. AI has been a major investment theme, but this time the headlines didn’t feature new chips or bold development plans. The AI chatbot utilized publicly available open-source models and, according to DeepSeek, performed on par or slightly surpassed the performance of its much larger U.S. rivals, at a fraction of the cost. The company stated costs to train the model – which skeptics were quick to point out cannot be verified and is likely understated – came in at around $6 million, far less than the hundreds of millions in training costs reported by U.S. hyperscalers.
Outsized returns, record highs on nearly a weekly cadence, and low volatility were three major themes of price action in 2024. The S&P 500 posted a total of 57 record highs, marking the fifth-highest number of new highs in a calendar year since 1950. Furthermore, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) averaged only 15.5 on a daily closing basis in 2024, well below its historical average close of 19.5 and ranking as the 12th lowest average annual VIX since 1990.
Investment inaction is played out in many ways, often silently, invisibly, and with potential consequence to an individual’s future financial security, especially when it comes to retirement planning.
Let’s review some of the forms this takes. (more…)
Stocks had another very strong year in 2024. In fact, 2024 marked the first time the S&P 500 has enjoyed a +20% gain in back-to-back years since 1997–98. Last year didn’t start out so optimistically though. The list of worries among stock-market bears included high valuations, narrow leadership by the largest technology stocks, rising long-term interest rates, election uncertainty, deficit spending, and more. Stocks rallied through all of that without so much as one 10% correction. (more…)
Do bad money habits constrain your financial progress? Many people fall into the same financial behavior patterns, year after year. If you sometimes succumb to these financial tendencies, New Year’s Resolutions are a great time to alter your behavior and set your year up for financial success! (more…)
Solid gains for stocks gave investors a November to remember. In fact, the S&P 500’s more than 5% advance marked its best month of 2024. Several factors played into the stock market’s continued move higher. The U.S. economy continued its steady run of solid growth. The Federal Reserve (Fed) cut interest rates as expected, providing some reassurance about the outlook for inflation. Third quarter earnings season was solid, revealing that corporate America still has double-digit earnings power in its bag of tricks. The combination of election clarity and prospects for deregulation and lower taxes from the incoming administration also played a role. Market leadership was also encouraging, as small caps and economically sensitive consumer discretionary and financial sectors led, which may bode well for further gains. (more…)
Talking about “the end” is not the easiest thing to do, and this is one reason why some people never adequately plan for the transfer of their wealth. Those who do create estate plans with help from financial and legal professionals sometimes leave their heirs out of the conversation. (more…)
Donald Trump was elected the 47th president of the United States, defeating Vice President Kamala Harris thanks to strong performance in key swing states that gave him 277 electoral votes to 224 for Harris (according to The Associated Press, while five states have yet to be called). The gains at the top of the Republican ticket filtered down to state-level races, where Republicans achieved a majority in the Senate by flipping three seats to take a 52-seat majority, with several tight races still yet to be called. House control is still up in the air, but Republicans appear headed for a razor-thin majority and a GOP sweep. (more…)
April showers came a month early as stocks fell in March. Tariffs were the primary cause of the market jitters, although that uncertainty became too much for markets to shrug off once economic data started to weaken.
A successful investor maximizes gain and minimizes loss. Though there can be no guarantee that any investment strategy will be successful and all investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal, here are six basic principles that may help you invest more successfully.
Losing a spouse is a stressful transition. And the added pressure of having to settle the estate and organize finances can be overwhelming. Fortunately, there are steps you can take to make dealing with these matters less difficult.
Families are one of the great joys in life, and part of the love you show to your family is making sure that their basic needs are met. While that’s only to be expected from birth through the high school years, many households are helping their adult children well into their twenties and beyond at … Continue reading “Retirement and Adult Children”
Life insurance can be an excellent tool for charitable giving. Not only does life insurance allow you to make a substantial gift to charity at relatively little cost to you, but you may also benefit from tax rules that apply to gifts of life insurance.
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