Tag: Current Events

How Could the Markets Surprise Us in 2024?

Feb 12, 2024

Byron Wien recently passed away. He was a true Wall Street icon. I had the good fortune of meeting Mr. Wien once when I was seated behind him at an investment conference during the depths of the Great Financial Crisis (GFC). Mr. Wien was probably best known for his annual top ten list of surprises for the year ahead. He defined a surprise on his list as something that the average investor would only assign about a one-in-three chance of occurring, but that he thought was closer to 50/50.  I always thought this was a useful exercise. Markets have a way of habitually surprising us and proving the conventional thinking wrong, so having an idea of where the potential forks in the road may come just makes us better prepared and informed as investors. (more…)

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Market Update – Solid Start to 2024

Feb 9, 2024

Stocks are off to a solid start in 2024. January gains are particularly enjoyable because of the old adage from the Stock Trader’s Almanac, “As goes January, so goes the year.” Nearly 75 years of historical data shows that when the S&P 500 has risen in January, the average gain for the remainder of the year has been about 12%. This January, the S&P 500 was up 1.6%. (more…)

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Market Update – As Goes January, So Goes the Year

Feb 2, 2024

After a relatively slow start, the S&P 500 rallied during the back half of January and closed out the month with a gain of 1.6%. Buying pressure was relatively narrow, as declining shares on the index modestly outpaced advancers. Similar to 2023, a few mega-caps did most of the heavy lifting. Shares of NVIDIA (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), and Meta (META) contributed 80% of the S&P 500’s total return during the month.

(more…)

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Important Lessons from 2023

Jan 3, 2024

Stocks defied the skeptics in a very unpredictable 2023. The Dow Jones finished at an all-time record high on December 28, and the S&P 500 came within a whisker of a fresh all-time high after the index rallied more than 20% for the year. (more…)

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Market Update – Dow Rallies to Record Highs

Dec 18, 2023

Key Takeaways

  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU) has gone from correction to record highs in only 32 trading days. Broadening participation predicated on falling interest rates and signs of a soft-landing scenario have underpinned the recovery.
  • What happens after a record high? Over the last 100 years, and filtering for record highs occurring at least three months apart, upside momentum has historically continued. The INDU has generated an average 12-month forward return of 11.1% after posting a new record high, with 71% of occurrences producing positive results.
  • And with the INDU already at record highs, all eyes are now on the Dow Jones Transportation Average (TRAN) to confirm the breakout, per Dow Theory.
  • LPL Research views the INDU’s recent record-high rally as another piece of evidence supporting the health and sustainability of the current bull market.

It only took 489 trading days, but the INDU climbed back into record-high territory this week. Broadening participation in the equity market recovery has lifted the index 15% above its recent October low and above the prior January 4, 2022 record high of 36,800. (more…)

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Is the Santa Claus Rally Still Coming to Town?

Dec 1, 2023

November lived up to its reputation as a strong month for stock market seasonality with the November “Turkey Rally” delivering outsized returns for stocks. Now as we look ahead to December, investors are asking the question: Is the Santa Claus Rally still coming to town? (more…)

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Is Gold a Good Investment?

Nov 29, 2023

Key Takeaways:

  • Gold is starting to shine again after confirming support off its rising 200-day moving average last week. A meaningful pullback in interest rates and the dollar underpinned the recovery in the yellow metal.
  • Momentum indicators point to a bullish trend change, while speculator long positions in gold continue to outpace shorts.
  • Central bank demand for gold is building, evidenced by record buying during the first nine months of the year.
  • Seasonal tailwinds return next month as gold enters its best two-month seasonal period.
  • However, resistance near $2,070 has been problematic for gold over the last several years, so while a retest of this level may be in the cards, a confirmed breakout will be required to keep gold’s upside momentum moving forward.

(more…)

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October is Breast Cancer Awareness Month

Oct 4, 2023

Breast Cancer Awareness month
Regular Screenings and annual check-ups are essential for early detection

October brings to mind the beauty of the leaves changing colors and a time to enjoy the colder weather. But October also holds another meaning for millions of people: it’s Breast Cancer Awareness Month. (more…)

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Investing in Bonds

Sep 27, 2023

calculating bond prices
Bonds can be an important piece of any portfolio

Bonds may not be as glamorous as stocks or commodities, but they are a significant component of most investment portfolios. Bonds are traded in huge volumes every day, but their full usefulness is often underappreciated and underestimated.

(more…)

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Government Shutdown Looms, Stocks Say ‘Been There, Done That’

Sep 22, 2023

The specter of a U.S. federal government shutdown continues to loom this week as Congress has just 12 days to agree on a budget before the October 1 deadline. House Republicans released a temporary measure on Sunday which could push the deadline out another month, with the hopes of a final solution coming in the interim. However, that proposal has encountered pushback even from within their own ranks, not to mention from across the aisle, and has yet to be voted on. The bad news is it looks like the government is headed for another shutdown; the good news is the stock market has seen this before. (more…)

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More Insights

Feb 21, 2024

You don’t want to pay more in federal income tax than you have to. With that in mind, here are five things to consider when it comes to keeping more of your income.

Feb 16, 2024

Investors are routinely warned about allowing emotion to influence their decisions. However, they are less routinely cautioned about their preconceptions and biases that may color their financial choices. In a battle between the facts & biases, our biases may win. If we acknowledge this tendency, we may be able to avoid some unexamined choices when … Continue reading “Do Our Emotion or Biases Affect Our Financial Choice”

Feb 14, 2024

Financial generalizations are as old as time. Some have been around for decades, while others have only recently joined their ranks. Let’s examine a few common retirement assumptions. Retirement means I can stop investing. In the past, retirement was viewed as an “end” in many ways. These days though, retirement is often seen as an opportunity … Continue reading “Debunking Common Retirement Assumptions”

Feb 12, 2024

Byron Wien recently passed away. He was a true Wall Street icon. I had the good fortune of meeting Mr. Wien once when I was seated behind him at an investment conference during the depths of the Great Financial Crisis (GFC). Mr. Wien was probably best known for his annual top ten list of surprises … Continue reading “How Could the Markets Surprise Us in 2024?”

Feb 9, 2024

Stocks are off to a solid start in 2024. January gains are particularly enjoyable because of the old adage from the Stock Trader’s Almanac, “As goes January, so goes the year.” Nearly 75 years of historical data shows that when the S&P 500 has risen in January, the average gain for the remainder of the … Continue reading “Market Update – Solid Start to 2024”

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