As Americans get their grills and beach chairs ready for the July 4th holiday, the stock market and the weather across much of the country have both been on heaters. Stocks and bonds continue to effectively navigate a complex policy landscape shaped by evolving trade dynamics, geopolitical tensions, and fiscal stimulus. The market’s resilience in the face of these crosscurrents has been impressive, proving yet again that the fundamentals of the U.S. economy and corporate America can withstand a lot.
During times like these when geopolitical headlines can be unsettling for investors, we at LPL Research like to remind ourselves of one of our key investing principles. Markets have always faced challenges —ranging from geopolitical conflicts and economic downturns to natural disasters, political upheaval and health crises. These events often trigger short-term volatility and shake investor confidence. However, historical data shows that stock markets have demonstrated a tendency to comeback after each crisis and rise over the longer time horizons. This patten underscores the importance, for strategic investors, of maintaining a long-term perspective – even when the near term outlook feels very uncertain.
Early in the second Trump administration, tariff threats have revived market volatility. Recent Treasury yield curve movements reflect this uncertainty, with markets reacting to both threatened and postponed tariffs against key trading partners. Short-term yields rose as markets pushed back expectations for Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts, while long-term yields declined on economic slowdown concerns and potential trade tensions. These yield curve dynamics mirror patterns seen during the first Trump presidency (more…)
The new month brings two major market-moving stories to digest. First is the advances in artificial intelligence (AI) by Chinese startup DeepSeek. It has caused some investors to question America’s lead in the AI race and American Exceptionalism more broadly. To answer that question, it’s important to look at this idea holistically. U.S. advantages in research and development spending, capital markets depth, the dollar’s privilege as the global reserve currency, and more suggest U.S. exceptionalism will remain intact. (more…)
What Is DeepSeek?The buzz around Chinese artificial intelligence (AI) startup DeepSeek began to stir over the weekend, prompting a “sell now ask questions later” attitude across tech shares on Monday. AI has been a major investment theme, but this time the headlines didn’t feature new chips or bold development plans. The AI chatbot utilized publicly available open-source models and, according to DeepSeek, performed on par or slightly surpassed the performance of its much larger U.S. rivals, at a fraction of the cost. The company stated costs to train the model – which skeptics were quick to point out cannot be verified and is likely understated – came in at around $6 million, far less than the hundreds of millions in training costs reported by U.S. hyperscalers.
Outsized returns, record highs on nearly a weekly cadence, and low volatility were three major themes of price action in 2024. The S&P 500 posted a total of 57 record highs, marking the fifth-highest number of new highs in a calendar year since 1950. Furthermore, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) averaged only 15.5 on a daily closing basis in 2024, well below its historical average close of 19.5 and ranking as the 12th lowest average annual VIX since 1990.

Investment inaction is played out in many ways, often silently, invisibly, and with potential consequence to an individual’s future financial security, especially when it comes to retirement planning.
Let’s review some of the forms this takes. (more…)
Stocks had another very strong year in 2024. In fact, 2024 marked the first time the S&P 500 has enjoyed a +20% gain in back-to-back years since 1997–98. Last year didn’t start out so optimistically though. The list of worries among stock-market bears included high valuations, narrow leadership by the largest technology stocks, rising long-term interest rates, election uncertainty, deficit spending, and more. Stocks rallied through all of that without so much as one 10% correction. (more…)

Do bad money habits constrain your financial progress? Many people fall into the same financial behavior patterns, year after year. If you sometimes succumb to these financial tendencies, New Year’s Resolutions are a great time to alter your behavior and set your year up for financial success! (more…)
Solid gains for stocks gave investors a November to remember. In fact, the S&P 500’s more than 5% advance marked its best month of 2024. Several factors played into the stock market’s continued move higher. The U.S. economy continued its steady run of solid growth. The Federal Reserve (Fed) cut interest rates as expected, providing some reassurance about the outlook for inflation. Third quarter earnings season was solid, revealing that corporate America still has double-digit earnings power in its bag of tricks. The combination of election clarity and prospects for deregulation and lower taxes from the incoming administration also played a role. Market leadership was also encouraging, as small caps and economically sensitive consumer discretionary and financial sectors led, which may bode well for further gains. (more…)
Few terms in personal finance are as important, or used as frequently, as “risk.” Nevertheless, few terms are as imprecisely defined. Generally, when financial advisors or the media talk about investment risk, their focus is on the historical price volatility of the asset or investment under discussion.
As Americans get their grills and beach chairs ready for the July 4th holiday, the stock market and the weather across much of the country have both been on heaters. Stocks and bonds continue to effectively navigate a complex policy landscape shaped by evolving trade dynamics, geopolitical tensions, and fiscal stimulus. The market’s resilience in … Continue reading “Market Update – America Gets Record High Stock Prices for Its Birthday”
Birthdays may seem less important as you grow older. They may not offer the impact of watershed moments such as getting a driver’s license at 16 and voting at 18. But beginning at age 50, there are several key birthdays that can affect your tax situation, health-care eligibility, and retirement benefits.
During times like these when geopolitical headlines can be unsettling for investors, we at LPL Research like to remind ourselves of one of our key investing principles. Markets have always faced challenges —ranging from geopolitical conflicts and economic downturns to natural disasters, political upheaval and health crises. These events often trigger short-term volatility and shake … Continue reading “Why Long Term Investing Beats Selling in Volatile Times”
Are you concerned about the inheritance taxes your heirs may have to pay? Then you may want to consider creating charitable lead trusts.
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