Tag: Current Events

September is living up to its reputation as a historically bad month for stocks. The S&P 500 fell 2.3% in the first two trading days, with a highly anticipated August employment report on deck tomorrow morning. The sudden change in momentum and jump in volatility has left many investors questioning the sustainability of the recovery from the August lows and if the rebound was simply a relief rally off oversold levels.

With NVIDIA (NVDA) earnings now out of the way, investor focus turns to the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) report and next week’s busy economic calendar, including a highly anticipated August employment report and the Institute for Supply Management Purchasing Managers’ Index manufacturing and services survey data. These data points — especially the September 6 payrolls report — will help write the narrative for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) next meeting on September 18.

What Happened?

In short, the recent sell-off was underpinned by three primary factors, including: 1) overbought conditions coming into August — especially in big tech; 2) waning confidence for a soft landing due to last week’s weak Institute of Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing and employment data; and 3) the rapid unwinding of the crowded yen carry trade.

This latest bout of market volatility has been unsettling, especially after such a calm 2023 and 2024 for stocks. However, with the benefit of some historical perspective, volatility of this magnitude is quite common.

The S&P 500 strung together 37 record highs this year aboard an 18.1% rally, as of July 10. The advance has largely been powered by a handful of mega cap names tied to technology and/or artificial intelligence. In fact, six stocks — NVIDIA (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), and Alphabet (GOOG/L) — are responsible for nearly two-thirds of the S&P 500’s total return this year. As highlighted in the chart below, the Magnificent Seven, which adds Tesla (TSLA) to the aforementioned six stocks, is up 51% on an equal weight basis. Without these seven stocks, the S&P 493 (ex Magnificent Seven) would only be up 8.3%.

The Texas Stock Exchange (TXSE) is saddling up as a new electronic stock exchange to be located in Dallas. Underpinned by a significant investment of $120 million from industry heavyweights like BlackRock and Citadel Securities, the TXSE aims to shake up the status quo and provide another competitive alternative to the globally recognized New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and NASDAQ.

After a solid 2023 in which the Bloomberg Municipal Index was up over 6% (including a positive 8% in November and December), it’s been a slow start to the year in 2024. Changing Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut expectations and already rich relative value ratios (versus Treasury yields) have, so far, offset still high tax-equivalent yields and solid fundamentals for the asset class. But with the unofficial kick-off to summer behind us, the muni market, we think, is set up for a number of potential tailwinds that could help push the index back into positive territory by yearend.