Market Behavior and the Economy
Jun 22, 2022
“Why is the stock market behaving this way if the economy is doing something different?” Many often wonder about the correlation between them. Ever heard of economic indicators?
It’s a great question, and fortunately, one that’s been answered before. To find the answer, we’ll need to dust off those economic textbooks of yesteryear and turn to the chapter on “lead, lag, and coincident indicators.”
“Lead indicators” are factors that are used to anticipate what may happen 6-9 months in the future. Think of the stock market as the foremost lead indicator. Now, imagine that the stock prices today are anticipating where the economy will be in 6-9 months. Is it correct? Despite what some may claim, no one knows for sure.
Alternatively, “coincident indicators” attempt to show the state of the economy right now. For example, gasoline deliveries are currently trending higher, consumer confidence appears to have stabilized, and airlines are seeing more bookings. Even the supply of toilet paper seems less of a concern these days, with Google searches for TP falling to near-normal levels.1,2 This may hint at higher consumer confidence at present.
Finally, “lag indicators” provide insight into past economic data. They may confirm long-term trends, but they are not very good at forecasting. The consumer price index is a historically classic example of a lag indicator. It tells us what inflation was, but doesn’t provide much insight about the future.
In general, when trying to evaluate why the markets are behaving a certain way, it may be best to gather as much data as possible. Economic indicators can help provide context for what can often seem counterintuitive behavior, especially in the face of intense global disruption.
Let a team member at Epic Capital know if you’d like to chat about the economy or any other topics you’re pondering. We are here to help.
For more insights and resources, be sure to sign up for our Weekly Market Commentary. Follow our YouTube channel where we regularly post our Epic Market Minute videos. Follow us on LinkedIn, or like us on Facebook. And as always, please don’t hesitate to reach out to a dedicated service professional at Epic Capital.
Tags: financial advisor charlotte nc, Investing, Personal Finance
More Insights
Apr 17, 2024
Following Iran’s missile and drone strikes on Israel over the weekend and the apparent escalation likely in any Israeli response, stocks fell sharply during Monday’s trading session. We examine the latest developments in the Middle East conflict, how stocks have reacted historically to geopolitical events, and the possible impact on markets moving forward.
Apr 15, 2024
Did you buy U.S. Savings Bonds decades ago? Or did your parents or grandparents purchase them for you? If they’re collecting dust in a drawer, you may want to take a look at them to see if any of your bonds have matured. If your bonds have matured, that means they are no longer earning … Continue reading “How US Savings Bonds Work”
Apr 12, 2024
In baseball, three strikes and you’re out. With inflation, a third straight month of hotter-than-expected consumer inflation data nearly ruled out probabilities for a June rate cut yesterday (now less than a 25% chance, according to fed funds futures). The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% in March, or 3.8% when compared on a … Continue reading “Market Update – Assessing the Prospect for a Pullback”
Apr 10, 2024
You know how important it is to plan for your retirement, but where do you begin? One of your first steps should be to estimate how much income you’ll need to fund your retirement. That’s not as easy as it sounds, because retirement planning is not an exact science. Your specific needs depend on your … Continue reading “Estimating Your Retirement Income Needs”
Apr 8, 2024
Let’s talk seasonality. For those that are unfamiliar, seasonality is the tendency for markets to perform better during some calendar periods and worse during others in a somewhat predictable way. One of the more amazing things about 2023 and part of the first quarter of 2024 is how well U.S. equity markets have been following … Continue reading “Can Pre-Election Market Trends Survive This Attention?”
Top of Page
Services
Epic Capital provides the following comprehensive financial planning and investment management services: Learn More >
Find us on:
Copyright © 2024 Epic Capital Wealth Management. All Rights Reserved.
Securities offered through LPL Financial. Member FINRA/SIPC.
The LPL Financial representative associated with this website may discuss and/or transact securities business only with residents of the following states: CA, CO, DC, DE, FL, GA, IN, LA, MD, MO, MS, NC, NJ, NY, PA, SC, TN, TX, VA, VT, WA.