Insights + Resources

Market Behavior and the Economy

Jul 8, 2020

Bull Bear Market Question
How can you determine market behavior?

As states cautiously begin the process of relaxing their COVID-19 restrictions, some are wondering, “Why is the stock market doing so well when the economy is doing so poorly?” Ever heard of economic indicators?

It’s a great question, and fortunately, one that’s been answered before. To find the answer, we’ll need to dust off those economic textbooks of yesteryear and turn to the chapter on “lead, lag, and coincident indicators.”

“Lead indicators” are factors that are used to anticipate what may happen 6-9 months in the future. Think of the stock market as the foremost lead indicator. Now, imagine that the stock prices today are anticipating where the economy will be in 6-9 months. Is it correct? Despite what some may claim, no one knows for sure.

Alternatively, “coincident indicators” attempt to show the state of the economy right now. For example, gasoline deliveries are currently trending higher, consumer confidence appears to have stabilized, and airlines are seeing more bookings. Even the supply of toilet paper seems less of a concern these days, with Google searches for TP falling to near-normal levels.1,2 This may hint at higher consumer confidence at present.

Finally, “lag indicators” provide insight into past economic data. They may confirm long-term trends, but they are not very good at forecasting. The consumer price index is a historically classic example of a lag indicator. It tells us what inflation was, but doesn’t provide much insight about the future.

In general, when trying to evaluate why the markets are behaving a certain way, it may be best to gather as much data as possible. Economic indicators can help provide context for what can often seem counterintuitive behavior, especially in the face of intense global disruption.

Let a team member at Epic Capital know if you’d like to chat about the economy or any other topics you’re pondering. We are here to help.

Tags: , ,

More Insights

Jan 25, 2021

Recently, the Internal Revenue Service (I.R.S.) announced that tax season will start a little later than usual. This year the I.R.S. will begin accepting and processing 2020 tax filing returns on Friday, February 12, 2021.1

Jan 22, 2021

What is a 1099 form? This is a record of payment from an individual or entity, showing a payment, generated for your records. The individual/entity sends a copy to both the payee as well as the I.R.S.1 Who might be sending 1099s? Clients send their contractors 1099s, recording work performed. Banks send 1099s to reflect … Continue reading “1099 Form Help”

Jan 20, 2021

When you think about your estate, you may think about your personal property, real estate, or investments. You also have other, less-tangible assets – and they deserve your attention as well. We consider these your digital assets. A digital footprint of your life – and you need to consider them within your estate planning.

Jan 18, 2021

Pursuing your retirement dreams is challenging enough without making some common, and very avoidable, mistakes. Here are eight big mistakes to steer clear of, if possible. No Strategy. Yes, the biggest mistake is having no strategy at all. Without a strategy, you may have no goals, leaving you no way of knowing how you’ll get … Continue reading “Eight Retirement Mistakes to Avoid”

Jan 15, 2021

When you lose a spouse, partner, or parent, the grief can be overwhelming. In the midst of that grief, life goes on. There are arrangements to be made, things to be taken care of – and in recognition of this reality, here is a checklist that you may find useful at such a time. If … Continue reading “Estate Planning Checklist for When a Spouse or Parent Passes”

Insights + Resources >