Factor #1 in our Road to Recovery Playbook is finding confidence in the peak of COVID-19 cases in the United States. At Epic Capital, we are monitoring this factor daily, and we wanted to provide an update into what we are seeing. As shown in the Chart of the Day, while the number of new cases in the United States has continued to climb, the number of new cases seen outside of the US has begun to drop in recent days. In fact, Italy, the worst-hit country in terms of total deaths from the virus, reported on Tuesday that new cases hit a two-week low.
This data is important because thus far the number of COVID-19 cases has conformed to Farr’s Law of Epidemics, exhibiting a somewhat predictable bell curve normal-like distribution. Formulated in the 1800s by British epidemiologist Dr. William Farr, these laws predict that epidemics normally follow a pattern of sharp increase, a peak, and then a decline back to a baseline.
The distributions of both new COVID-19 cases and related fatalities in China and South Korea have exhibited this behavior and appear to have ridden out the initial outbreak cycle. The City of Wuhan, China, which was the initial epicenter for the virus, reported on March 19 that it had zero new cases—showing us that the curve can be flattened and there is light at the end of this dark tunnel.
“The market’s bounce last week may have been in anticipation of some of these more positive data points regarding the virus,” said LPL Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “While US cases continue to climb, the more countries that reach their peak, the more clarity we gain into what that timing may look like for the United States. Investors have historically been rewarded for investing during these crisis events, and we believe the time for suitable investors to consider adding some risk to their portfolios may be approaching.”
When you lose a spouse, partner, or parent, the grief can be overwhelming. In the midst of that grief, life goes on. There are arrangements to be made, things to be taken care of – and in recognition of this reality, here is a checklist that you may find useful at such a time. If … Continue reading “Estate Planning Checklist for When a Spouse or Parent Passes”
The first week of 2021 has already had many ups and downs. Just because it’s a new year doesn’t mean that the 2020 issues go away, and so far, 2021 has been no exception to this rule. The markets opened on January 4 and traded lower out of the gate, with the S&P 500 dropping … Continue reading “2021 Opens With a Bang”
A new year offers a welcomed turn of the calendar and a fresh start. However, it’s difficult to put 2020 completely behind us just yet because the COVID-19 pandemic still presents a significant threat. Healthcare workers continue to perform heroically, while the rest of us must continue to make sacrifices until vaccines are widely distributed. … Continue reading “Market Update: 2021 Brings a Fresh Start”
After a bit of political posturing on stimulus details in December, the $900 billion Consolidated Appropriations Act of 2021 (2021 CAA) was signed into law by President Trump as the COVID-19 pandemic continues to impact employers and employees. Here’s a quick recap of five key highlights providing stimulus to those that need it:
Financially, many of us associate April with taxes – but we should also associate April with important IRA deadlines. From current and previous IRA contribution deadlines, to RMD deadlines, keep an eye on the calendar. April 15, 2021 is the deadline to take your Required Minimum Distribution (RMD) from certain individual retirement accounts. Keep in … Continue reading “IRA Contribution Deadlines are Approaching”
Epic Capital provides the following comprehensive financial planning and investment management services: Learn More >