Factor #1 in our Road to Recovery Playbook is finding confidence in the peak of COVID-19 cases in the United States. At Epic Capital, we are monitoring this factor daily, and we wanted to provide an update into what we are seeing. As shown in the Chart of the Day, while the number of new cases in the United States has continued to climb, the number of new cases seen outside of the US has begun to drop in recent days. In fact, Italy, the worst-hit country in terms of total deaths from the virus, reported on Tuesday that new cases hit a two-week low.
This data is important because thus far the number of COVID-19 cases has conformed to Farr’s Law of Epidemics, exhibiting a somewhat predictable bell curve normal-like distribution. Formulated in the 1800s by British epidemiologist Dr. William Farr, these laws predict that epidemics normally follow a pattern of sharp increase, a peak, and then a decline back to a baseline.
The distributions of both new COVID-19 cases and related fatalities in China and South Korea have exhibited this behavior and appear to have ridden out the initial outbreak cycle. The City of Wuhan, China, which was the initial epicenter for the virus, reported on March 19 that it had zero new cases—showing us that the curve can be flattened and there is light at the end of this dark tunnel.
“The market’s bounce last week may have been in anticipation of some of these more positive data points regarding the virus,” said LPL Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “While US cases continue to climb, the more countries that reach their peak, the more clarity we gain into what that timing may look like for the United States. Investors have historically been rewarded for investing during these crisis events, and we believe the time for suitable investors to consider adding some risk to their portfolios may be approaching.”
Financially speaking, retirement might differ from your expectations. Just as few weathercasters can accurately predict a month’s worth of temperatures and storms, few retirees find their financial futures playing out as precisely as they assumed. Because of this, some common financial assumptions (and anxieties) about retirement are worth examining.
Information vs. instinct. When it comes to investment choices, many people believe they have a “knack” for choosing good investments. But what exactly is that “knack” based on? The fact is, the choices we make with our assets can be strongly influenced by factors, many of them emotional, that we may not even be aware … Continue reading “Making Investment Choices”
In corporate America, pension plans are fading away. Only 16% of Fortune 500 companies offered them to full-time employees in 2018, according to Willis Towers Watson research. In contrast, legal, medical, accounting, and engineering firms are keeping the spirit of the traditional pension plan alive by adopting cash balance plans.1
I’d like for you to meet my friend, Hugh. He’s a retired film stuntman who, after a long career, is enjoying his retirement. Some of what he’s enjoying about his retirement is sharing part of his accumulated wealth with his family, specifically his wife and two sons. Like many Americans, Hugh likes to make sure … Continue reading “The Gift Tax”
“Never confuse a single defeat with a final defeat.” — F. Scott Fitzgerald The economic struggles in our country are among the worst we’ve ever seen. In April, a record 20 million people lost their jobs, and 36 million people have filed for unemployment since the COVID-19 pandemic struck in mid-March. Record drops in consumer … Continue reading “Better Times Are Coming”
Epic Capital provides the following comprehensive financial planning and investment management services: Learn More >