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The Yield Curve as a Predictor of Recessions

Nov 23, 2022

Yield Curve Inversion Predicts Recessions 2-6 Quarters Ahead

The shape of the U.S. Treasury yield curve is often looked at as a barometer for U.S. economic growth. More specifically, it reflects how the Federal Reserve (Fed) intends to stimulate or slow economic growth by cutting or raising its policy rate. Each tenor on the curve is roughly the expected policy rate plus or minus a term premium (the term premium represents the expected compensation for lending for longer periods of time). In “normal” times, the yield curve is upward sloping, meaning longer maturity Treasury yields are higher than shorter maturity Treasury yields. However, when, like now, inflationary pressures are apparent and the Fed wants to slow aggregate demand, shorter maturity securities could eventually out-yield longer maturity securities, inverting the yield curve. (more…)

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Did Retail Sales Change the Market Narrative?

Nov 18, 2022

Were Retail Sales Too Good?

Nominal retail sales in October rose 1.3% from a month ago, strongly beating expectations. Market watchers like to transform this nominal report into an inflation-adjusted estimate, which better corresponds to other real economic gauges. Deflated by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), real retail sales rose 0.8% in October, the highest real monthly rate since February. (more…)



Coping with an Inheritance

Nov 14, 2022

Trending Data
A windfall from a loved one can be both rewarding and complicated.

Inheriting wealth can be a burden and a blessing. Even if you have an inclination that a family member may remember you in their last will and testament, there are many facets to the process of inheritance that you may not have considered. Here are some things you may want to keep in mind if it comes to pass.

Take your time. If someone cared about you enough to leave you a sizable inheritance, then you will likely need time to grieve and cope with their loss. This is important, and many of the more major decisions about your inheritance can likely wait. And consider, too – when you’re dealing with so much already, you may be too overwhelmed to give your options the careful consideration they need and deserve. You may be able to make more rational decisions once some time has passed. (more…)



Common Retirement Investment Mistakes

Nov 9, 2022

There are a few common retirement investment mmistakes to keep in mind as you seek to maximize your savings and investments.

Only one-in-four Americans (27%) feel very confident that they will have enough money to live comfortably when they retire, according to the 2020 Retirement Confidence Survey Summary Report.⁠ While the number is up slightly from the 2018 survey (23%), it underscores a pervasive sense of uncertainty among those approaching retirement age. (more…)



Market Update: Looking Ahead

Nov 7, 2022

Market Update
Market Update

October is now behind us and it has delivered on its track record as a historically favorable month for stocks, offering some respite for investors as major equity indices rose for the month. The downside pressure on equities had gotten a bit overdone after investor pessimism during September reached lows not witnessed in quite a few years. From a contrarian perspective, extreme pessimism can often be followed by a market bounce. Such a reaction can serve as a reminder not to react too quickly to near-term market developments. Gains in October helped deliver that message again, though they have only slightly offset this year’s losses during what has been a very tough environment for capital markets. (more…)



New Retirement Contributions for 2023

Nov 4, 2022

Free illustrations of Update

The Internal Revenue Service has released new limits for the coming year. After months of high inflation and financial uncertainty, some of these cost-of-living-based adjustments have reached near-record levels.

(more…)



Breaking Down the Real Costs of Purchasing a Home

Oct 31, 2022

buying a house
It’s essential to have your finances in order first.

Home ownership has several advantages over renting, including lower monthly payments, deductible mortgage interest, and the accumulation of equity. But there is a definite price to pay for these benefits, including the expenses we detail here. (more…)

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Mutual Fund Distributions

Oct 26, 2022

Tax Consulting Office
Watch your December Statements.

This time of year as you prepare for taxes, you might glance at an documents and see some capital gains taxes you may have overlooked.

Many mutual funds in December pay shareholders capital gains distributions that they have accumulated throughout the year.

Typically, mutual fund companies start making estimates about distributions as early as November and most finalize the payment by mid-December. Unfortunately for us, this can cause undesirable tax consequences. (more…)



A Roth IRA’s Many Benefits

Oct 19, 2022

Why do so many people choose them over traditional IRAs?

The IRA that changed the whole retirement savings perspective. Since the Roth IRA was introduced in 1998, its popularity has soared. It has become a fixture in many retirement planning strategies because it offers savers so many potential advantages.  (more…)

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Market Update: Investor Pessimism at Extreme Levels

Oct 17, 2022

Market Update
Market Update

The latest weekly data from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) showed the percentage of individual investors who are bullish about short-term market expectations at very depressed levels (20.4%), and continued the trend of an extremely elevated proportion of bearish investors (55.9%). This puts the spread between the bulls and the bears at -35.5%, only the 21st time in the survey’s 35 year history the reading has been this pessimistic. (more…)



More Insights

Jul 9, 2025

Few terms in personal finance are as important, or used as frequently, as “risk.” Nevertheless, few terms are as imprecisely defined. Generally, when financial advisors or the media talk about investment risk, their focus is on the historical price volatility of the asset or investment under discussion.

Jul 7, 2025

As Americans get their grills and beach chairs ready for the July 4th holiday, the stock market and the weather across much of the country have both been on heaters. Stocks and bonds continue to effectively navigate a complex policy landscape shaped by evolving trade dynamics, geopolitical tensions, and fiscal stimulus. The market’s resilience in … Continue reading “Market Update – America Gets Record High Stock Prices for Its Birthday”

Jun 20, 2025

Birthdays may seem less important as you grow older. They may not offer the impact of watershed moments such as getting a driver’s license at 16 and voting at 18. But beginning at age 50, there are several key birthdays that can affect your tax situation, health-care eligibility, and retirement benefits.

Jun 18, 2025

During times like these when geopolitical headlines can be unsettling for investors, we at LPL Research like to remind ourselves of one of our key investing principles. Markets have always faced challenges —ranging from geopolitical conflicts and economic downturns to natural disasters, political upheaval and health crises. These events often trigger short-term volatility and shake … Continue reading “Why Long Term Investing Beats Selling in Volatile Times”

Jun 16, 2025

Are you concerned about the inheritance taxes your heirs may have to pay? Then you may want to consider creating charitable lead trusts.

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