Insights + Resources

Whats Driving Current Market Behavior?

Jul 15, 2020

In the era of COVID-19, and the financial woes it has created, I often get asked, “Why is the stock market holding up so well when the economy appears to be struggling?”

To understand why the markets react — or don’t — to certain outside factors, it’s always good to keep in mind that the stock market is not the economy. I can’t stress this enough. We touched on this week’s volatility in yesterday’s market update.

The stock market is considered a “lead economic indicator,” meaning it’s anticipating what economic conditions will look like 6-9 months into the future. While it can sometimes be a tricky concept to grasp, remember that the stock market’s price today reflects potential future economic activity. 1

Another “lead economic indicator” is building permits. When there is an increase in building permits, it lets us know that developers are bullish about future home sales prospects. If building permits are down, it tells investors that builders may be concerned about interest rates and consumer confidence.2

Although helpful in general, lead indicators should never be seen as infallible. Abrupt and unexpected changes will prompt lead indicators to rapidly recalibrate their expectations for the future. Look no further than when COVID-19 grabbed the headlines in early March, which ended the stock market’s 11-year bull market.3,4

Keep in mind that in addition to lead indicators, there are lag indicators and coincident (real-time) indicators. We take all three types of indicators into account to help provide context for what can often seem counterintuitive behavior, especially in the face of intense global disruption.

For more reading on economic indicators, feel free to check out an earlier blog post on market behavior.

Let me know if you’d like to chat about market behavior, economy or any other topics you’re pondering. A dedicated professional at Epic Capital is here to help.

Tags: , , ,

More Insights

Market Performance is a Tale of Haves & Have-Nots
Jul 15, 2024

The S&P 500 strung together 37 record highs this year aboard an 18.1% rally, as of July 10. The advance has largely been powered by a handful of mega cap names tied to technology and/or artificial intelligence. In fact, six stocks — NVIDIA (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), and Alphabet (GOOG/L) … Continue reading “Market Performance is a Tale of Haves & Have-Nots”

Should You Care What the Stock Market Does Each Day?
Jul 12, 2024

Investors are people, and people are often impatient. No one likes to wait in line or wait longer than they have to for something, especially today when so much is just a click or two away.

Are You Retiring Within the Next 5 Years
Jul 10, 2024

You can prepare for the transition years in advance. In doing so, you may be better equipped to manage anything unexpected that may come your way.

Charitable Giving
Jul 8, 2024

When developing your estate plan, you can do well by doing good. Leaving money to charity rewards you in many ways. It gives you a sense of personal satisfaction, and it can save you money in estate taxes.

Retirement Wellness
Jul 5, 2024

How healthy a retirement do you think you will have? If you can stay active as a senior and curb or avoid certain habits, you could potentially reduce one type of retirement expense. Each year, Fidelity Investments presents an analysis of retiree health care costs. In 2023, Fidelity projected that the average 65-year-old couple would … Continue reading “Retirement Wellness”

Insights + Resources >