Insights + Resources

Whats Driving Current Market Behavior?

Jul 15, 2020

Want to know what economic conditions look like 6-9 months from now? Current stock market behavior may tell us.

In the era of COVID-19, and the financial woes it has created, I often get asked, “Why is the stock market holding up so well when the economy appears to be struggling?”

To understand why the markets react — or don’t — to certain outside factors, it’s always good to keep in mind that the stock market is not the economy. I can’t stress this enough. We touched on this week’s volatility in yesterday’s market update.

The stock market is considered a “lead economic indicator,” meaning it’s anticipating what economic conditions will look like 6-9 months into the future. While it can sometimes be a tricky concept to grasp, remember that the stock market’s price today reflects potential future economic activity. 1

Another “lead economic indicator” is building permits. When there is an increase in building permits, it lets us know that developers are bullish about future home sales prospects. If building permits are down, it tells investors that builders may be concerned about interest rates and consumer confidence.2

Although helpful in general, lead indicators should never be seen as infallible. Abrupt and unexpected changes will prompt lead indicators to rapidly recalibrate their expectations for the future. Look no further than when COVID-19 grabbed the headlines in early March, which ended the stock market’s 11-year bull market.3,4

Keep in mind that in addition to lead indicators, there are lag indicators and coincident (real-time) indicators. We take all three types of indicators into account to help provide context for what can often seem counterintuitive behavior, especially in the face of intense global disruption.

For more reading on economic indicators, feel free to check out an earlier blog post on market behavior.

Let me know if you’d like to chat about market behavior, economy or any other topics you’re pondering. A dedicated professional at Epic Capital is here to help.

Tags: , , ,

More Insights

Oct 21, 2020

Applications for the Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA) are now open for the academic year 2021-22. Applying for the FAFSA allows you to qualify for grants, scholarships, and other federally-sourced aid, such as work-study or student loans. The applications opened on October 1, 2020, and will be accepted until the deadline, June 30, … Continue reading “FAFSA Applications Open”

Oct 19, 2020

America’s debt is now nearly as large as its economy. On September 2, the Congressional Budget Office announced that by the end of the 2020 fiscal year (September 30), the federal government is projected to owe debt equaling 98% of the nation’s gross domestic product.

Oct 16, 2020

It should come as no surprise to hear the economy is the top issue for voters in the 2020 election. Nearly 8 in ten voters say that the economy will be very important to them when they cast their votes at the ballot box in just over two weeks.

Oct 14, 2020

When training to become a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER®, much of our course work centers on the six critical areas of creating a financial strategy. Some recognize October as Financial Planning Month, so it’s an excellent opportunity to review those six personal finance areas.

Oct 12, 2020

With one year ending and a new one on the cusp of starting, many people will consider their resolutions—not their estate planning strategy. But the end of the year is a great time to sit down and review your preparations, especially when you’re spending more time with your loved ones; even more important if you … Continue reading “Estate Planning Strategies for Year-End”

Insights + Resources >