Category: Epic Insights

It seems like we just can’t stop talking about the Federal Reserve (Fed). After an aggressive rate hiking campaign that we think ended last year, markets were expecting the Fed to start cutting interest rates as early as next month. But withan economy that continues to surprise to the upside, along with inflationary pressures that are still too hot, it seems it will still be a few months before we get any of those rate cuts.

In baseball, three strikes and you’re out. With inflation, a third straight month of hotter-than-expected consumer inflation data nearly ruled out probabilities for a June rate cut yesterday (now less than a 25% chance, according to fed funds futures). The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% in March, or 3.8% when compared on a 12-month basis, topping respective estimates of 0.3% and 3.7%. Investors quickly dialed back rate-cut expectations on the news, pushing Treasury yields up by 0.15% to 0.20% and stocks down around 1%.

Let’s talk seasonality. For those that are unfamiliar, seasonality is the tendency for markets to perform better during some calendar periods and worse during others in a somewhat predictable way. One of the more amazing things about 2023 and part of the first quarter of 2024 is how well U.S. equity markets have been following the historical pre-presidential election seasonal path. The idea of the presidential cycle is predicated on the belief that the executive branch’s economic pursuits, priorities, and the desire to get re-elected are a primary influence on the stock market in the two years before an election. One could even argue that this influence is more relevant today than before, given the heavy fiscal-interventionist approaches that the current and previous administrations have pursued.