Category: Epic Insights

Market Update – A Deeper Dive Into the Carry Trade

Aug 14, 2024

What Happened?

In short, the recent sell-off was underpinned by three primary factors, including: 1) overbought conditions coming into August — especially in big tech; 2) waning confidence for a soft landing due to last week’s weak Institute of Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing and employment data; and 3) the rapid unwinding of the crowded yen carry trade.

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Market Update – More Pullback Perspective

Aug 9, 2024

This latest bout of market volatility has been unsettling, especially after such a calm 2023 and 2024 for stocks. However, with the benefit of some historical perspective, volatility of this magnitude is quite common.

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Market Update – Perspectives on Market Volatility

Aug 7, 2024

Stocks must have gotten the memo that August tends to be weak historically. July, the eighth positive month in the past nine, was quickly forgotten as the beginning of August greeted us with a selloff. The primary catalyst was August 2’s weaker-than-expected employment report, which ignited concern that the U.S. economy could tip into recession. Several additional factors exacerbated the selling pressure: (more…)

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What is Critical Illness Insurance

Aug 5, 2024

What is Critical Illness Insurance
What it is, why people opt for it.

Ever hear of critical illness insurance? This isn’t standard-issue disability insurance, but a cousin of sorts. With people living longer, it is a risk management option entering more people’s lives. (more…)

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Understanding Risk

Jul 31, 2024

Few terms in personal finance are as important, or used as frequently, as “risk.” Nevertheless, few terms are as imprecisely defined. Generally, when financial advisors or the media talk about investment risk, their focus is on the historical price volatility of the asset or investment under discussion.

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Market Update – Assessing the Technical Damange

Jul 26, 2024

Key Takeaways

  • Volatility came back with a vengeance this week as selling pressure in the mega cap space dragged down the broader market. Counterbalancing weakness in these heavyweight names poses a challenge for the rest of the market.
  • Overbought conditions can also be blamed for the recent weakness. The S&P 500 reached a 14.9% premium to its 200-day moving average (dma) last week, marking the highest level since 2011. Historical comparisons point to momentum continuing over the next year, but not on a linear path.
  • Technically, the S&P 500 violated a short-term uptrend yesterday as momentum indicators turned bearish. While there is a growing risk the current pullback continues lower, there is plenty of support before the longer-term uptrend is challenged. Furthermore, longer-term breadth metrics and overall market leadership remain bullish.

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Retirement Plans for Small Businesses

Jul 17, 2024

As a business owner, you should carefully consider the advantages of establishing an employer-sponsored retirement plan. Generally, you’re allowed certain tax benefits for establishing an employer-sponsored retirement plan, including a tax credit for establishing the plan and a deduction for contributions you make. In return, however, you’re required to include certain employees in the plan, and to give a portion of the contributions you make to those participating employees. Nevertheless, a retirement plan can provide you with a tax-advantaged method to save funds for your own retirement, while providing your employees with a powerful and appreciated benefit.

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Market Performance is a Tale of Haves & Have-Nots

Jul 15, 2024

Market Update
Market Update

The S&P 500 strung together 37 record highs this year aboard an 18.1% rally, as of July 10. The advance has largely been powered by a handful of mega cap names tied to technology and/or artificial intelligence. In fact, six stocks — NVIDIA (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), and Alphabet (GOOG/L) — are responsible for nearly two-thirds of the S&P 500’s total return this year. As highlighted in the chart below, the Magnificent Seven, which adds Tesla (TSLA) to the aforementioned six stocks, is up 51% on an equal weight basis. Without these seven stocks, the S&P 493 (ex Magnificent Seven) would only be up 8.3%.

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Retirement Wellness

Jul 5, 2024

Father and Son sitting on dock by water
Staying healthy could save you some money.

How healthy a retirement do you think you will have? If you can stay active as a senior and curb or avoid certain habits, you could potentially reduce one type of retirement expense.

Each year, Fidelity Investments presents an analysis of retiree health care costs. In 2023, Fidelity projected that the average 65-year-old couple would spend around $285,000 on health care during retirement, including about $11,000 in the first year. Both projections took Medicare benefits into account. (more…)

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Sneak Peek into Second Half Seasonality of Stocks

Jul 1, 2024

Key Takeaways

  • Stocks are heading into the second half with impressive momentum. Historically, a strong first half tends to be followed by above-average second-half returns.
  • Perhaps unsurprisingly, 1995 had the highest correlation to 2024 (based on first-half progressions) — a year that included a soft landing, the launch of the internet, and extremely low volatility.
  • Despite the bullish precedence from a positive first half, bull markets are not linear. The maximum drawdown for the S&P 500 during the second half has averaged -10.3% since 1950. However, seasonality data suggests dips should be bought in the second half.
  • Technically, the S&P 500 remains in a bull market and above its long-term uptrend, but overbought conditions — especially in technology and semiconductors — and notable divergences in market breadth point to a potential short-term pause or pullback in this rally.

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