
What is a Soft Landing?
A soft landing is when economic growth slows but remains positive as the economy sets up for a long-term sustainable growth path. In contrast, a hard landing means the country falls into recession to break the overheated economic machine. One assumption behind the analogy is an overheated economy is not on a sustainable growth path so policy makers ought to tighten financial conditions to improve the chances the economy can maintain a stable growth rate. (more…)

The Uneven Path
For most categories, inflation is decidedly past peak. But as we see from today’s report, the pathway back down to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) target of 2%, will be choppy. In January, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.5% from a month ago, driven up by shelter costs. Higher shelter costs contributed roughly half of the monthly gain in prices during the month. Other contributors to the upward rise in prices were groceries, restaurants, and energy costs. (more…)

What a Difference a Year Makes
A year ago today, the federal funds rate was close to zero, consumer price inflation reached 7.9%, and yet the 10-year Treasury yield was 1.79%. What a difference a year makes. Inflation clearly had more upside and from this vantage point, the Federal Reserve (Fed) was late in pursuing price stability. (more…)

Gold has climbed to a nine-month high after breaking out from a bottom formation last fall. The yellow metal is now up nearly 20% off the September lows, including over a 5% year-to-date gain as of Monday, January 23. The recovery in gold has primarily been fueled by a weakening dollar and fading market expectations for a further prolonged Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike cycle due to receding inflation pressures in the U.S. Rising demand from foreign central banks, including the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), has provided an additional tailwind for gold. (more…)
Congress spent the final days of 2022 on new reforms designed to help Americans save more for retirement (SECURE Act 2.0).
You may hear the changes called SECURE Act 2.0, which is a follow-up to the Setting Every Community Up for Retirement Enhancement (SECURE) Act enacted into law in late 2019. (more…)

Slower Growth and Higher Inflation
As expected, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) increased the fed funds rate yesterday by 0.50% and made upward revisions to both inflation forecasts and interest rate forecasts in the next few years. The target range is now 4.25–4.50%. This meeting signaled the beginning of a downshift in the pace of rate hikes, as the previous four meetings concluded with a 0.75% increase to the target rate. The Committee delivered a well-telegraphed move, barely changing any verbiage from the previous statement, and unlike the recent rate decision in the U.K., the FOMC was unanimous. (more…)

The shape of the U.S. Treasury yield curve is often looked at as a barometer for U.S. economic growth. More specifically, it reflects how the Federal Reserve (Fed) intends to stimulate or slow economic growth by cutting or raising its policy rate. Each tenor on the curve is roughly the expected policy rate plus or minus a term premium (the term premium represents the expected compensation for lending for longer periods of time). In “normal” times, the yield curve is upward sloping, meaning longer maturity Treasury yields are higher than shorter maturity Treasury yields. However, when, like now, inflationary pressures are apparent and the Fed wants to slow aggregate demand, shorter maturity securities could eventually out-yield longer maturity securities, inverting the yield curve. (more…)

First, we want to acknowledge the tremendous damage and displacement caused by Hurricane Ian. Our thoughts are with those impacted by this devastating storm.
This has clearly been a challenging year for households. Stocks and bonds are both down significantly. Elevated food and gas prices continue to stretch budgets, and higher interest rates have increased borrowing costs. But we continue to see signs that the worst may be behind us. Gas prices are falling. Inflation pressures stemming from supply chain disruptions are easing. And the Federal Reserve (Fed) has taken these price increases seriously and is doing its job by raising short-term interest rates. While the Fed may still gradually increase rates throughout this year, it has already done a lot even as asset prices have come under increasing pressure. (more…)

When it comes to stock market performance, August was “the best of times, and the worst of times.” The strong market rally that peaked in mid-August was viewed by many analysts as a transition from a bear to bull market, based on the surge in breadth that stocks enjoyed and the magnitude of the two-month rally that began in mid-June totaling 17%. (more…)

Last week was epic for market-watchers. A Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike, a much-anticipated gross domestic product (GDP) report, and the busiest week of earnings season got most of the headlines. There was even a surprise out of Washington D.C., with a Schumer-Manchin agreement on a climate-healthcare-tax bill and some inflation data that added to the evidence that inflation has peaked. (more…)
Few terms in personal finance are as important, or used as frequently, as “risk.” Nevertheless, few terms are as imprecisely defined. Generally, when financial advisors or the media talk about investment risk, their focus is on the historical price volatility of the asset or investment under discussion.
As Americans get their grills and beach chairs ready for the July 4th holiday, the stock market and the weather across much of the country have both been on heaters. Stocks and bonds continue to effectively navigate a complex policy landscape shaped by evolving trade dynamics, geopolitical tensions, and fiscal stimulus. The market’s resilience in … Continue reading “Market Update – America Gets Record High Stock Prices for Its Birthday”
Birthdays may seem less important as you grow older. They may not offer the impact of watershed moments such as getting a driver’s license at 16 and voting at 18. But beginning at age 50, there are several key birthdays that can affect your tax situation, health-care eligibility, and retirement benefits.
During times like these when geopolitical headlines can be unsettling for investors, we at LPL Research like to remind ourselves of one of our key investing principles. Markets have always faced challenges —ranging from geopolitical conflicts and economic downturns to natural disasters, political upheaval and health crises. These events often trigger short-term volatility and shake … Continue reading “Why Long Term Investing Beats Selling in Volatile Times”
Are you concerned about the inheritance taxes your heirs may have to pay? Then you may want to consider creating charitable lead trusts.
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Your privacy is important to us. We will not rent or sell your information.